In , Russia launched the latest volley in a cyber cold war that spread cracks through the bedrock foundation of American democracy. In addition to influencing potentially millions of Americans, Russia's activities led to an almost two-year special counsel investigation into our newly seated president that reached its climax in the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report Thursday.
Russia created a tectonic widening of the political divide — a divide that has only increased in the wake of Mueller's conclusion that the president did not coordinate with Russia to influence the election. As a cybersecurity analyst and former intelligence operative, I've been speaking out about Russia's ongoing campaign to undermine our democracy with cyberattacks, and I'm concerned at what the reaction has been. A growing number of people have sent me vitriolic messages, primarily on social media, claiming that the Russia attacks were a hoax.
Perhaps they think that if they acknowledge Russian interference in our election, they'll somehow betray their allegiance to our president. But Russian attacks are not a hoax. Read more commentary:. Full Access. Subscribe Now. Most read Articles Book reviews. New APS Book. Academy of Political Science The Academy of Political Science, promotes objective, scholarly analyses of political, social, and economic issues.
Political Science Quarterly With neither an ideological nor a partisan bias, PSQ looks at facts and analyzes data objectively to help readers understand what is really going on in national and world affairs.
Stay Connected newsstand locator. The exaggeration of terrorist capacities has been greatest in the many overstated assessments of their ability to develop nuclear weapons. There have been scores of terrorist plots rolled up in the US by authorities but, looked at carefully, the culprits left on their own do not seem to have had the capacity to increase the death toll very much.
Some targets, such as airliners, may have been taken off the list, but potential terrorist targets remain legion. In recent years, there has been increasing anxiety about the rise of China as a challenger country or about the assertiveness of Russia backed by its large nuclear arsenal. Both concerns are overblown. After a remarkable period of economic growth, China has come to rank second in the world in gross domestic product though worse than 70th in per capita GDP.
In a globalized economy, it is of course better for the United States and for just about everyone if China or any other country becomes more prosperous — for one thing, they can now buy more of our stuff including debt. From time to time, China may be emboldened to throw its weight around in its presumed area of influence. China seems to have decided to become more assertive about its claims in the South China Sea, and it has disputes with its neighbors over fishing areas there.
Even if China were to come to imagine that it controls that body of water, it will still have an intense interest in the free flow of ships through it. And fishing disputes have been around ever since the invention of fish and of people whichever came second and are more nearly the inspiration for farce than for cosmic Sturm und Drang.
World leaders should sensibly keep their eyes on this, but it is most likely that the whole problem will be worked out over the course of time without armed conflict. It also has problems with restive populations in Hong Kong and elsewhere, and now, perhaps, with the aftermath of the corona virus pandemic which originated in China.
Meanwhile, pollution kills Chinese per day. Concerns about Russia have greatly escalated since its armed dispute with neighboring Ukraine in It has not even sought to officially annex separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. KGB headquarters made clear that any Republican or Democratic candidate—other than Reagan—would be preferable.
President and Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan and his wife Nancy wave to supporters at an electoral meeting in November In addition to placing sources inside the campaigns, the KGB worked with front groups and agents of influence—such as pro-Soviet journalists—in the United States to disparage Reagan.
The Soviets relied on these groups to support active measures and propaganda campaigns, and KGB officers were in frequent contact with officials from these groups.
Reagan officials—along with U. For the United States, however, Moscow was willing to dedicate significant time and money. Although it is often difficult to judge the effectiveness of specific active measures operations, the Soviets believe these operations have a cumulative effect and are detrimental to U.
Furthermore, the Soviets believe that their active measures operations in the United States do contribute to their overall strategy to advance Soviet foreign policy interests, influence U. First, it is an interesting historical twist that Moscow shifted its active measures campaign from demonizing Republican candidates to supporting a Republican presidential nominee in Donald Trump. To be clear, Moscow has never been motivated per se by U. Moscow apparently concluded that Trump was more friendly to Russia and its policies than Hillary Clinton.
Moscow has never been motivated per se by U. Second, Russian active measures today are about much more than the U. They are about strategic balance-of-power competition with the United States.
Russia employs a mix of technologically-sophisticated offensive cyber capabilities, covert action, and information operations in an attempt to expand its power and compete with the United States. Moscow has implemented overt information campaigns using platforms like RT and Sputnik.
It has also conducted covert campaigns to support influential figures and opposition political parties in the United States and Europe; waged offensive cyber campaigns against the United States, France, Germany, and other NATO countries; and supported proxies in Ukraine, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan to increase its power in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and even Africa. The U. National Defense Strategy , for example, notes that the United States is engaged in inter-state competition with countries like China and Russia.
Third, Moscow likely believes its intelligence efforts today are helping undermine U. The United States needs to avoid devolving into the hysteria of the McCarthy years during the s, which included a broad campaign against alleged Communists in the U. Yet there are legitimate threats from countries like Russia and China.
It is striking and unfortunate that U. Without a tough response, like Reagan did during the Cold War, it is unlikely that Moscow will be deterred from interfering again in the future. The Mueller report highlights that the United States faces a range of threats from adversaries like Russia—along with others, like China.
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